Laboratori bilong Rulet · Laboratori · Statistik · 8 min

Chi-Square Tes

Tes ol i save yusim bilong askim: “ol 37 namba i olsem stretpela wil bai givim?”

Sotpela bekim

χ² = Σ (wanem yu lukim − wanem yu wetim)² / wanem yu wetim, long olgeta 37 hul. Skelim wantaim chi-square distribiusen long 36 degri bilong fridom bilong kisim p-velyu.

namba bilong tes
Σ (O−E)²/E
df
36
mak long 5%
51.0
mak long 1%
58.6

Kaunim em

Avarej namba long wan wan hultulHulWanpela long ol 37 hul i gat namba long rota. Narapela nem: slot, cup.Ritim olgeta → em n/37. Long wan wan hul, kisim senis namel long wanem yu lukim na wanem yu wetim, skwerim, na dilaim long wanem yu wetim; bungim ol 37 namba. Stretpela wil i givim namba klostu 36 long avarej (ol degri bilong fridomlaboratoriDegri bilong fridomNamba bilong ol velyu i no hangamap long narapela insait long wanpela statistik. Long chi-square tes long 37 hul em i 36, long wanem ol kaunim i mas bung i kamap olgeta namba.Ritim olgeta →), wantaim standet diviesenmatematikStandet diviesenSkwea rut bilong varians; hamas longwe resal i save stap long ekspektet velyu.Ritim olgeta → klostu 8.5. Antap long 51.0 i makim samting long mak 5%; antap long 58.6 long 1%. Wheel Bias Analyzer i kaunim namba bilong tes na stretpela p-velyulaboratorip-velyuSans long lukim senis i bikpela olsem o i winim dispela yu lukim, sapos wil i stret.Ritim olgeta → long regularized incomplete gamma function.

n tanimavarej long wan wan hulσ long wan wan hulhul long +2σhul long +3σ
370103.11619
1,000275.13742
3,7001009.9120130
10,00027016.2303319
37,0001,00031.21,0621,094
σ ≈ √(n·p·(1−p)) wantaim p = 1/37. Long 1,000 tanim, hul i kamap 37 taim em i samting nating; hul i kamap 42 taim em i gutpela long kisim namba tu samting yu kaunim.

Wanpela piksa

1,000 tanim. Tetisikis hul i kamap namel long 20 na 34 taim; hul 8 i kamap 41 taim. Avarej em 27.03. Namba bilong hul 8 yet em (41 − 27.03)²/27.03 = 7.2. Ting olsem ol narapela 36 namba i kamap 38 wantaim (olsem planti taim). χ² = 45.2 long 36 df, p ≈ 0.14. I no makim samting: stretpela wil i mekim olsem wanpela taim long sevenpela. Hul 8 em i samting yu ken lukluk long en, i no painim, na ansa em narapela tausen tanim.

Ol samting tes i ting i tru

Ol tanim i no hangamap long narapelamatematikOl tanim i no hangamap long narapelaOlgeta tanim i gat wankain sans, maski wanem samting i kamap bipo. Olgeta kaunim long dispela sait i sanap long dispela.Ritim olgeta →, na avarej i mas 5 o moa long wan wan hul. Olsem na n ≥ 185 bilong tes i ken wok liklik, na planti moa bilong em i gat helpim. Sapos yu bungim ol tanim long planti wil, yu brukim namba wan tingting (yu testim ol wil i miks, i no wanpela wil). Pasin bilong han bilong dila bai brukim em tru, na bai mekim χ² i go antap, maski i no gat hul i gat bias long bodi bilong wil.

Pasin bilong Han bilong Dila long RuletOl Tanim bilong Rulet i No Hangamap long Narapela

Pearson na Monte Carlo

Karl Pearson i putim tes ples klia long 1900. Wanpela bilong ol namba wan piksa bilong en em 26,306 tanim bilong rulet long Monte Carlo ol i bin raitim. Em i painim olsem ol i no wankain tumas bilong kamap long laki, na em i tokaut olsem “Monte Carlo roulette… is not a game of chance” (rulet bilong Monte Carlo i no pilai bilong sans). Bihain ol narapela raita i tok olsem ol nius man i raitim ol tanim bilong wanpela niuspepa i bin giamanim planti bilong ol. Em i wanpela skul tu long save gut long we ol namba i kam long en.

Tes na wil
1900

Pearson i putim chi-square tes bilong skelim olsem ol namba i fit, wantaim ol tanim bilong Monte Carlo olsem piksa.

ol yia 1900

Ol i askim sapos ol namba bilong tanim i tru; ating ol man i raitim i bin giamanim ol ran.

ol yia 1920

Fisher i stretim tingting bilong degri bilong fridom; pasin bilong 5% i kamap strong.

ol yia 1940–50

Ol saveman bilong statistik i yusim ol tanim bilong rulet olsem namba bilong buk bilong skul bilong testim sapos ol i wankain.

ol yia 1990

Famili García-Pelayo i yusim dispela pasin wantaim ol namba tru ol i raitim, na ol i win long Madrid.

nau

Ol kasino i mekim wankain tes long ol wil bilong ol yet olsem wok bilong lukautim wil oltaim.

Tes bilong Pearson long 1900 i painim olsem ol tanim bilong Monte Carlo i no wankain tumas; ol man bilong niuspepa i raitim i bin giamanim planti bilong ol.

Rulet long Monte Carlo

Wanpela tes tru: ol wil i wok long em yet long Las Vegas

Planti taim ol pleia i ting olsem wil i wok long em yet i stiaim baltulBalLiklik bal dila i sutim long rot i go long narapela sait long rota. Ol nupela bal i ivorine o Teflon, 18–21 mm.Ritim olgeta → i go longwe long ol bikpela bet. Wanpela skelim long 2017 i testim dispela tingting long ol wil bilong Interblock long Las Vegas i no gat dila na i gat dabel sirowilSiroWanpela grinpela hul we i no gat bet wan-long-wan, dosen o kolam i karamapim; em i as bilong edj bilong kasino. Narapela nem: wanpela siro, 0.Ritim olgeta →. Ol i putim bet long wanpela hap bilong faivpela namba i stap klostu, kain bet olsem man i taimim wil i save mekim. Long 299 tanim, dispela hap i win 29 taim, na avarej em 39.3. Stretpela wil i givim kain sotpela olsem klostu 4% bilong taim. Chi-square long olgeta 38 hul em 45.29 long 37 degri bilong fridom: p = 16.5%. Namba tu samting yu kaunim, 1,204 tanim long tripela wil, i givim χ² = 34.79, p = 57%, na i no gat wanpela hap, liklik o bikpela, i makim samting. Tupela wantaim, 1,503 tanim, i givim χ² = 41.75, p = 27%. Ansa em i no gat mak olsem wil i stiaim bal. Namba wan samting yu kaunim tasol i luk olsem i no stret; namba tu i stretim tok.

samting yu kaunimtanimχ²dfp
namba wan29945.293716.5%
namba tu, tripela wil1,20434.793757%
tupela wantaim1,50341.753727%
Ol namba i kam long dispela skelim bilong 2017; wan wan p-velyu i kam long χ² bilong en. Wil i gat dabel siro i gat 38 hul, olsem na 37 degri bilong fridom.

Moa long chi-square

Long wanpela hul tasol yu ting i no stret, binomial tes i strong moa. Long wanpela hap bilong wil yu ting i no stret, yusim z-tes bilong seksenwilSeksenWanpela hap bilong wil we ol hul i stap wan bihain long narapela, i narakain long wanpela grup long laiaut.Ritim olgeta → long pes bilong skelim ol seksen. Chi-square em i tes bilong olgeta samting: em i tokim yu olsem wanpela samting i no stret, tasol i no tok wanem samting. Yusim em pastaim, na bihain lukluk.

Skelim Ol Seksen

Fomula

χ² = Σᵢ (Oᵢ − Eᵢ)² / Eᵢ
Eᵢ = n / 37 · df = 36
ol mak: 51.0 (5%) · 58.6 (1%)

Ol askim

Bilong wanem 36 degri bilong fridom na i no 37?

Ol 37 namba i mas kamap n wantaim, olsem na 36 tasol i fri long senis.

Wil i gat strongpela bias bai soim wanem χ²?

Wil i gat wanpela hul long 1/25 long 10,000 tanim bai givim namba klostu 60 long dispela hul tasol; χ² klostu 100, na p klostu siro tru.

Mi ken mekim long 200 tanim?

Long lo bilong tes, yes, wantaim avarej 5.4 long wan wan hul. Tasol em bai i no painim wanpela samting, sapos ol i no pasim wanpela hul olgeta long glu.

Liklik lap

Bungim ol saprais yu skwerim. Skelim wantaim 51.0.

Bungim ol saprais yu skwerim. Skelim wantaim 51.0.

Ol As bilong Save

  1. Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…” Philosophical Magazine 50(302), 1900.
  2. Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, 3rd ed., 1968. Gembla i lusim olgeta mani, sapta XIV.
  3. Wizard of Odds. “Organic Roulette Experiment.” Mas 2017; ol i apdetim long 3 Ogas 2026.
mipela i skelim gen long 2026-09-28model: Yurop, wanpela sirometodoloji ↗ol as bilong save ↗