Lukim Sesen: Wanpela Sesen Martingale
Ten dola long ret, yu dabelim bihain long olgeta lus, long tebol bilong $500. Wan wan tanim, wantaim tanim i pinisim sistem.
Wanpela sesen bilong Martingale ol i simulatim, i stat long $1,000 mani bilong pilai. Fotiwan liklik win, na bihain sikispela lus long wanpela ran, na tebol i no orait long namba seven bet. Sesen i pinis long lus bilong $220 bihain long em i bin antap $410. Em nau wok bilong sistem.
Plen
Putim bet $10 long retbetRetBet wan-long-wan long 18 namba ret. Tok Frans: rouge.Ritim olgeta →. Bihain long lus, dabelim. Bihain long win, go bek long $10. Mak bilong teboltebolMak bilong tebolBet liklik tru na bet bikpela tru ol i larim. Mak antap em i samting i stopim ol progresen i save dabel.Ritim olgeta → em $500, olsem na ol mani bilong bet em 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, na bihain bet bilong $640 tebol bai i no orait long en. Sikispela lus long wanpela ran i bagarapim sistem. Long wan wan traim, sans long dispela em (19/37)⁶ ≈ 1.8%, na sesen bilong 100 tanim i gat klostu 50 traim. Wanem yumi ken ting bai kamap: klostu 60% sans long sistem i bagarap insait long 100 tanim, na lus bilong $630 taim em i bagarap.
Ol tanim 1–30
MartingalestratejiMartingaleProgresen i mekim bet i dabel bihain long olgeta lus. Lukim hap Strateji long wanem samting em i mekim na i no mekim.Ritim olgeta → olsem oltaim: ol ran bilong wanpela i go inap tripela lus, na wanpela win i pinisim wan wan ran na i givim win tru +$10. Long tanim 30 yumi gat 17 win, wan wan i pinisim wanpela saikel, na yumi antap $170. Bet i bikpela tru inap nau em $80 bihain long tripela lus. Yu pilim olsem em i masin bilong prinim ol pepa mani bilong $10.
Ol tanim 31–60
Wankain samting gen, wantaim wanpela saikel bilong fopela lus (mani bilong bet i go antap long $160, na bihain win). Long sotpela taim em i putim $310 long tebol, na yu pilim olsem yu strongpela man. Bihain long 60 tanim: 41 saikel i pinis, yumi antap $410, na mani bilong pilaimaniMani bilong pilaiOlgeta mani yu putim long sait bilong pilai. Lukautim mani bilong pilai em i makim hamas long en yu redi long lusim long wanpela bet na long wanpela sesen.Ritim olgeta → i go daun tasol long $1,040. Histogram bilong olgeta sesen bilong Martingale i luk olsem long bikpela hap bilong en.
Ol tanim 61–66
L L L L L L. Ol mani bilong bet 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320: $630 i lus. Bet bihain em $640; mak em $500. Sistem i bagarap. Yumi ken putim bet $500 (na sapos em i win, yumi stap yet daun $130 long dispela saikel), o go bek long $10 na orait long lus. Sikispela blakbetBlakBet wan-long-wan long 18 namba blak. Tok Frans: noir.Ritim olgeta → o sirowilSiroWanpela grinpela hul we i no gat bet wan-long-wan, dosen o kolam i karamapim; em i as bilong edj bilong kasino. Narapela nem: wanpela siro, 0.Ritim olgeta → long wanpela ran i gat sansmatematikSansSans bilong wanpela resal, long 0 i go 1 o 0% i go 100%. Wanpela namba: 1/37 = 2.70%.Ritim olgeta → 1.8% long wan wan saikel. Yumi bin ranim klostu 45 saikel. Sans long kamap long dispela hap long wanpela taim insait long 45 saikel em klostu 55%. Em i no nogut luk; em i namba long namel.
- p10 −$1,000
- p25 −$1,000
- namba long namel −$1,000
- p75 +$790
- p90 +$1,690
Kaunim mani
Antap $410 bihain long 60 tanim, daun $220 bihain long 66. Olgeta mani yu betim: klostu $2,100 long 66 tanim, na pleia i bet $10 wankain oltaim i betim $660 tasol. Avarej lusmatematikAvarej lusEkspektet velyu taims olgeta mani yu betim; avarej mani yu lusim long wanpela sesen o long wanpela taim.Ritim olgeta → long $2,100 bilong olgeta mani yu betimmaniOlgeta mani yu betimOlgeta mani yu betim long wanpela sesen o long wanpela taim, wantaim mani yu win na yu betim gen. Narapela nem: handle, action.Ritim olgeta → em $57. Lus tru bilong yumi, −$220, i stap klostu wanpela hap long tri bilong wanpela standet diviesenmatematikStandet diviesenSkwea rut bilong varians; hamas longwe resal i save stap long ekspektet velyu.Ritim olgeta → daunbilo long en. Dispela i no narakain long sistem i gat longpela tel long hap kais. Sapos yumi bin stop long tanim 60 wantaim mak bilong stop long winstratejiMak bilong stop long winMak bilong win yu makim pastaim, na taim yu kamap long en yu pinisim sesen.Ritim olgeta → bilong $400, yumi bai lusim tebol long antap $410, na sesen bihain bai i gat wankain 1.8% long wan wan saikel.
Wanem samting sesen i soim
Martingale i senisim bet bilong 48.65% i kamap wanpela lain i win long 98% bilong ol saikel na i lusim 63 yunitmaniYunitMani bilong bet bilong stat we wanpela sistem o wanpela pleia i wok long en. Ol i stori long ol progresen long yunit, olsem na ol i ken wok long wanem tebol.Ritim olgeta → long narapela 2%. Em i no senisim avarej lus long wan wan dola; em i mekim ol dola i kamap planti. Pleia i bet wankain oltaim long sait bilong yumi i betim wanpela hap long tri tasol, na long avarej em i lusim wanpela hap long tri tasol. Pleia i ranim dispela sistem inap wanpela yia bai winim planti nait, na lusim yia.
Hamas taim ran bilong lus i save kamap
Bet wan-long-wan long wil i gat wanpela siro i save lus long 19 tanim long 37. Wanwan lain i soim sans olsem olgeta tanim long wanpela ran bai lus, na hamas mani pleia bilong Martingale, em i dabolim bet bihain long olgeta lus, i lusim inap long dispela taim.
| lus i bihainim lus | sans | klostu 1 long | lus inap nau | bet bihain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $1,023 | $1,024 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $2,047 | $2,048 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $4,095 | $4,096 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $8,191 | $8,192 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $16,383 | $16,384 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $32,767 | $32,768 |
Sans em 19/37 taim em yet wanpela taim long wanwan lus, i stat long wanpela tanim. Longpela sesen i gat planti tanim we kain ran inap stat, olsem na long wanpela nait em i kamap planti moa long wanpela lain i soim.
Ol askim
Nainpela lus i bagarapim, i no sikispela: 0.25% long wan wan saikel, na $5,110 i lus taim em i kamap. Klif i no save kamap planti taim, klif i antap moa, wankain −2.70%.
Em bai win long 48.65% bilong ol taim, na saikel bai i stap yet long −$130. I no gat gutpela rot bihain long Martingale i bagarap; i gat tasol mani bilong bet yu makim bihain.
Yes, long dispela sesen. I no long avarej bilong olgeta sesen.
Amamas wantaim Matematik
Traim ol dispela yu yet pastaim. Bekim bilong wanwan i hait; opim taim yu redi.
Long tebol bilong $1 i go inap $500, pleia bilong MartingalestratejiMartingaleProgresen i mekim bet i dabel bihain long olgeta lus. Lukim hap Strateji long wanem samting em i mekim na i no mekim.Ritim olgeta → i stat long $1 long retbetRetBet wan-long-wan long 18 namba ret. Tok Frans: rouge.Ritim olgeta → long wil i gat wanpela sirowilSiroWanpela grinpela hul we i no gat bet wan-long-wan, dosen o kolam i karamapim; em i as bilong edj bilong kasino. Narapela nem: wanpela siro, 0.Ritim olgeta →. Hamas lus wanpela i bihainim narapela i stopim pasin bilong dabolim bet, hamas mani i lus pinis long dispela taim, na hamas taim em i save kamap?
Soim bekim
Bekim Nainpela lus: $511 i lus, na neks bet bai $512. Em i kamap wanpela taim long klostu 403 lain bilong bet.
Ol mani bilong bet em 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 na 256: wantaim $511. Namba ten bai $512, i winim mak. Bet bilong $500 i win i lusim pleia daun long $11 yet; bet i lus i lusim em daun long $1,011.
Ret i lus wantaim sans 19/37, olsem na nainpela lus wanpela i bihainim narapela i gat sans bilong (19/37)⁹ ≈ 0.25%, wanpela taim long klostu 403 lain. Olgeta lain i pinis i winim $1, olsem na pleia i ken ting long kisim klostu $402 long ol liklik win paslain long wanpela lus bilong $511, na long avarej 2.70% bilong olgeta mani em i betim i lus yet.
Long wil i gat dabel siro, sans em (20/38)⁹, wanpela taim long klostu 323. Bollman (2021) i prinim “klostu 1 long 833”, em i (18/38)⁹, sans bilong nainpela win wanpela i bihainim narapela.
Liklik lap
Fotiwan liklik win na wanpela bikpela lus. Em nau olgeta sistem.
Ol As bilong Save
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”