Strateji D'Alembert bilong Rulet
Strateji D’Alembert bilong rulet i putim wanpela yunit moa bihain long lus, na i rausim wanpela bihain long win.
Em i no winim wil. Em i progresenstratejiProgresenWanem lo i senisim mani bilong bet long ol resal i go pinis. Negative progresen i mekim bet i go antap bihain long lus, positive progresen bihain long win.Ritim olgeta → i isi moa long olgeta narapela ol i save yusim: mani bilong bet i go antap isi isi, lus long antap i go daun i no bikpela tumas, na edj i stap olsem tasol.
Wokabaut long sistem
Lus i muv wanpela step i go antap. Win i muv wanpela step i go bek.
Ol bet na ol risal i stap long yunit bilong bet bilong stat.
Sistem D’Alembert bilong rulet, step bihain step
Betim wanpela yunitmaniYunitMani bilong bet bilong stat we wanpela sistem o wanpela pleia i wok long en. Ol i stori long ol progresen long yunit, olsem na ol i ken wok long wanem tebol.Ritim olgeta →. Sapos yu lus, neks bet i bikpela long wanpela yunit. Sapos yu win, em i liklik long wanpela yunit, tasol i no go daunbilo long wanpela. Em tasol. Tingim wanpela plang ol pikinini i save pilai long en, wanpela het i go antap na narapela het i go daun: olgeta lus i litimapim mani bilong bet liklik, na olgeta win i putim i go daun gen. Tingting i stap aninit em olsem ol win na ol lus bai i kamap wankain, olsem na mani bilong bet bai i kam bek long stat. Samting ol i laikim em olsem: olgeta wanpela win na wanpela lus long tupela mani bilong bet i stap klostu i givim win tru bilong +1 yunit: lus 3, win 4, win tru +1.
Sesen i luk olsem wanem?
Isi, wantaim mani bilong bet i go antap isi isi. Long bet wan-long-wan ol lus i winim ol win 19 long 18, olsem na long longpela sesen mani bilong bet i go antap. Mani bilong bet i bikpela tru taim yu bin lus, na i liklik taim yu win. Olsem na avarej mani bilong bet taim yu lus planti i winim avarej taim yu win planti. Ol sesen i isi moa long MartingalestratejiMartingaleProgresen i mekim bet i dabel bihain long olgeta lus. Lukim hap Strateji long wanem samting em i mekim na i no mekim.Ritim olgeta →: lus long antap i go daunmaniLus long antap i go daunMani bilong pilai i pundaun long mak antap tru i go daun long wanpela mak daunbilo bihain insait long wanpela sesen. Bikpela tru long dispela pundaun ol i kolim maksimum.Ritim olgeta → i no bikpela tumas na i no gat klif. Tasol long avarej ol i lusim liklik moa long bet wankain oltaimstratejiBet wankain oltaimBetim wankain mani long olgeta tanim. Olgeta progresen ol i skelim wantaim dispela.Ritim olgeta →, long wanem avarej mani bilong bet i bikpela moa.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- namba long namel −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 −$500
Sistem D’Alembert i save wok o nogat?
Nogat. Sesen i gat wankain namba bilong win na lus i save win, tasol ol sesen i no save stap olsem. Bihain long w win na l lus long ol mani bilong bet i stap klostu, risalt em w − l yunit, wantaim liklik stretim bilong ples yu stap long en long ladar. Sapos w = l, risalt em stret +w yunit, na em i luk olsem win i mas kamap. Tasol w = l i no samting yu ken ting bai i kamap: long 37 tanim yu ken ting long 18 win na 19 lus. Wanpela lus moa long mani bilong bet i go antap pinis long, olsem, 8 yunit i kostim moa long eitpela ol +1 i kamap long ol tupela tupela. Avarej i kamap −1/37 bilong olgeta mani yu betimmaniOlgeta mani yu betimOlgeta mani yu betim long wanpela sesen o long wanpela taim, wantaim mani yu win na yu betim gen. Narapela nem: handle, action.Ritim olgeta →, olsem em i mas kamap.
Bilong wanem ol sotpela sesen i save win planti taim?
Taim win na lus i kamap wankain, em i hap tasol bilong wanpela lo i karamapim olgeta sesen. Kolim D em namba bilong ol lus, rausim namba bilong ol win. Sesen bilong N tanim i stat long wanpela yunit i pinis long (N − D²)/2 − D yunit, sapos i no gat bet bilong wanpela yunit i win (bihain long kain win olsem, mani bilong bet i no inap go daun moa). Wantaim D = 0 em i +N/2, em +w bilong hap antap. Olgeta lus moa i kaunim olsem skwea: bihain long 100 tanim, D bilong 4 i lusim yet +38 yunit, D bilong 8 i lusim +10, na D bilong 10 i lusim −10. Sans tasol i mekim D i senis inap long √N, em ten bihain long 100 tanim. Long gem i no gat sirowilSiroWanpela grinpela hul we i no gat bet wan-long-wan, dosen o kolam i karamapim; em i as bilong edj bilong kasino. Narapela nem: wanpela siro, 0.Ritim olgeta →, ol win bilong planti sesen i stap stret na ol lus bilong sampela sesen i no stret i rausim ol yet stret. Siro i putim wanpela lus moa long olgeta 37 tanim long avarej, na long wanem D i skwea, kost bilong en i go antap hariap moa long sesen. Planti sesen inap 100 tanim i pinis wantaim win; avarej i no save win, na bihain long sampela handet tanim planti sesen i lus tu.
Na sapos yu tanim i go baksait?
Contra-D’Alembert, ol i kolim tu D’Alembert i go baksait, i putim wanpela yunit bihain long win na i rausim wanpela bihain long lus. Em i olsem glas stret bilong namba wan sistem. Sapos i no gat bet bilong wanpela yunit i lus, sesen bilong N tanim i pinis long (D² − N)/2 + D yunit, na nau D em ol win rausim ol lus. Sesen i gat wankain win na lus i lusim hap yunit long wanpela tanim, na ran bilong win i go longwe winim ol lus tasol i givim win. Olsem na planti sesen i lusim liklik, na sampela i winim planti. Dispela em i narakain olgeta long namba wan sistem, na avarej em wankain 2.70% bilong olgeta mani yu betim.
Husat em d’Alembert?
Jean le Rond d’Alembert, em wanpela saveman bilong matematik na wanpela editor bilong Encyclopédie. Long wanpela atikol bilong 1754 em i tok olsem: bihain long planti het bilong koin i kamap, tel i gat moa sans long kamap. Em i rong, na giaman tingting i karim nem bilong en em wanpela kain giaman tingting bilong gembla. Bihain tru ol gembla i gat wankain bilip i givim nem bilong en long sistem D’Alembert bilong rulet. Em i no bin wokim, na ating em i no bin laik sapotim.
I gat ol narapela kain o nogat?
Contra-D’Alembert, long antap, i wok olsem wanpela ParolistratejiParoliPositive progresen: dabel bihain long win, go bek long stat bihain long lus o bihain long tripela win wan bihain long narapela. Narapela nem: Martingale i go baksait.Ritim olgeta → i isi. Sampela pleia i putim tupela yunit bihain long lus na i rausim wanpela bihain long win, na dispela i mekim ladar i go antap hariap moa, klostu long ples bilong Martingale. Olgeta kain i gat wankain avarej lusmatematikAvarej lusEkspektet velyu taims olgeta mani yu betim; avarej mani yu lusim long wanpela sesen o long wanpela taim.Ritim olgeta → long wanpela yunit yu betim.
Simulata · D'Alembert
2,000 sesen bilong bet wan-long-wan i stat long mani bilong pilai $1,000.
Bet bilong stat $10 · mak bilong tebol $500 · 100 tanim long wanwan sesen
Hamas taim ran bilong lus i save kamap
Bet wan-long-wan long wil i gat wanpela siro i save lus long 19 tanim long 37. Wanwan lain i soim sans olsem olgeta tanim long wanpela ran bai lus, na hamas mani pleia bilong D’Alembert, em i putim wanpela bet bilong stat moa bihain long olgeta lus, i lusim inap long dispela taim.
| lus i bihainim lus | sans | klostu 1 long | lus inap nau | bet bihain |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26.4% | 4 | $3 | $3 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 7 | $6 | $4 |
| 4 | 7.0% | 14 | $10 | $5 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 28 | $15 | $6 |
| 6 | 1.8% | 55 | $21 | $7 |
| 7 | 0.94% | 106 | $28 | $8 |
| 8 | 0.48% | 207 | $36 | $9 |
| 9 | 0.25% | 403 | $45 | $10 |
| 10 | 0.13% | 784 | $55 | $11 |
| 11 | 0.065% | 1527 | $66 | $12 |
| 12 | 0.034% | 2974 | $78 | $13 |
| 13 | 0.017% | 5792 | $91 | $14 |
| 14 | 0.0089% | 11279 | $105 | $15 |
| 15 | 0.0046% | 21965 | $120 | $16 |
Sans em 19/37 taim em yet wanpela taim long wanwan lus, i stat long wanpela tanim. Longpela sesen i gat planti tanim we kain ran inap stat, olsem na long wanpela nait em i kamap planti moa long wanpela lain i soim.
Ol askim
Em i no gat klif, olsem na em i negativ progresen i isi tru. Em i no sip moa long bet wankain oltaim; em i kostim liklik moa.
Mak bilong teboltebolMak bilong tebolBet liklik tru na bet bikpela tru ol i larim. Mak antap em i samting i stopim ol progresen i save dabel.Ritim olgeta → tasol, o mani bilong pilaimaniMani bilong pilaiOlgeta mani yu putim long sait bilong pilai. Lukautim mani bilong pilai em i makim hamas long en yu redi long lusim long wanpela bet na long wanpela sesen.Ritim olgeta → bilong yu. Long longpela sesen bilong lus, em i go antap oltaim.
Amamas wantaim Matematik
Traim ol dispela yu yet pastaim. Bekim bilong wanwan i hait; opim taim yu redi.
Yu pilai D’Alembert long retbetRetBet wan-long-wan long 18 namba ret. Tok Frans: rouge.Ritim olgeta → long 50 tanim, yu stat long wanpela yunitmaniYunitMani bilong bet bilong stat we wanpela sistem o wanpela pleia i wok long en. Ol i stori long ol progresen long yunit, olsem na ol i ken wok long wanem tebol.Ritim olgeta →, na yu no save winim bet bilong wanpela yunit (bihain long kain win olsem, bet i no gat hap i daunbilo moa long go). Yu pinis wantaim 27 lus na 23 win. Yu stap antap o daun hamas yunit? Na wantaim 29 lus na 21 win?
Soim bekim
Bekim +13 yunit wantaim 27 lus, −15 yunit wantaim 29. Tupela tanim long faiv ten i go long narapela sait i kostim 28 yunit.
Kolim D ol lus rausim ol win. Risal em (N − D²)/2 − D long N tanim. Wantaim 27 lus na 23 win, D = 4: (50 − 16)/2 − 4 = 17 − 4 = +13. Wantaim 29 na 21, D = 8: (50 − 64)/2 − 8 = −7 − 8 = −15.
Bilong wanem lo i tru: bet oltaim em wanpela yunit wantaim ol lus inap nau rausim ol win inap nau. Wanwan lus we win bihain i katim i kamap tupela, lusim s na bihain winim s + 1, em i givim +1 yunit, olsem namba tebol antap i soim. Long N tanim, (N − D)/2 kain tupela i kamap, velyu +(N − D)/2. Ol D lus i stap yet ol i putim long bet 1, 2 … D taim ol i go antap na ol i no katim; ol i kostim 1 + 2 + … + D = D(D + 1)/2. Wantaim: (N − D)/2 − D(D + 1)/2 = (N − D²)/2 − D.
Skwea em olgeta stori. Sesen i stret i pe hap yunit long wanwan tanim, na olgeta step i go longwe long stret i kostim moa long step bipo.
Yu pilai D’Alembert i go baksait long ret long 100 tanim, yu stat long wanpela yunit, na nogat bet bilong wanpela yunit i save lus. Yu pinis wantaim 52 win na 48 lus. Yu stap we? Na wantaim 60 win na 40 lus?
Soim bekim
Bekim −38 yunit wantaim 52 win, +170 wantaim 60. Liklik win moa i lus yet; bikpela win moa tasol i pe.
Kolim D ol win rausim ol lus. Risal em (D² − N)/2 + D long N tanim.
52 win na 48 lus: D = 4, olsem na (16 − 100)/2 + 4 = −42 + 4 = −38.
60 win na 40 lus: D = 20, olsem na (400 − 100)/2 + 20 = 150 + 20 = +170.
Bilong wanem: wanwan win we lus bihain i katim i kamap tupela, winim long s na bihain lusim long s + 1, em i givim −1. Ol D win i stap yet ol i putim long bet 1, 2 … D taim ol i go antap na ol i no save katim; ol i givim D(D + 1)/2. Long N tanim, (N − D)/2 tupela i kamap, olsem na olgeta em D(D + 1)/2 − (N − D)/2 = (D² − N)/2 + D.
Em i lo bilong D’Alembert bilong bipo wantaim ol mak i tanim i go baksait: long hap, stret i winim hap yunit long wanwan tanim na no stret i kisim panis; hia, stret i kostim hap yunit long wanwan tanim na no stret i kisim pe.
Liklik lap
Nem i kam long wanpela saveman bilong matematik i bin rong long koin.
Ol As bilong Save
- RouletteDoc. Stori bilong strateji na ol eksampel.
- Roulette77. Stori bilong strateji na ol eksampel.
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Epstein, R. A. The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, namba 2 edisen.