Statistik i Makim Samting Tru
“I makim samting” i min olsem stretpela wil i no save mekim olsem planti taim. I no min “i tru”, na i no min “bai yu winim mani”.
P-velyu 0.05 i min olsem stretpela wil bai givim pasin i no stret olsem wanpela taim long tupela ten. Sapos yu lukim tupela ten wil, wanpela bai pas long laki nating.
P-velyu em i wanem
Em i sansmatematikSansSans bilong wanpela resal, long 0 i go 1 o 0% i go 100%. Wanpela namba: 1/37 = 2.70%.Ritim olgeta → long lukim senis i bikpela olsem yu lukim o moa, sapos wil i stret. Em i toktok long ol namba aninit long wanpela tingting, i no long wil yet. P-velyulaboratorip-velyuSans long lukim senis i bikpela olsem o i winim dispela yu lukim, sapos wil i stret.Ritim olgeta → 0.03 i tok: stretpela wil i mekim olsem 3% bilong taim. Em i no tok: i gat 97% sans olsem wil i gat bias. Bilong tokaut olsem, yu mas save pastaim long hamas wil i gat biaslaboratoriWil i gat biasWil we sampela bagarap long bodi bilong en i mekim sampela hul i kamap moa long 1/37. Em i no planti, na yu inap painim tasol wantaim planti tausen tanim yu raitim.Ritim olgeta → i stap. Long kasino nau ol i stap liklik tru. Olsem na wanpela ansa tasol i makim samting i ken kamap long laki nating planti moa long wanpela painim tru.
Planti tes
Olgeta tes yu mekim long stretpela wil i gat 5% sans long pas long mak 5%. Testim tupela ten wil na wanpela i pas. Testim wanpela wil long tupela ten hap taim na wanpela i pas. Testim wanpela samting yu kaunim wantaim 37 pasin bilong bungim hultulHulWanpela long ol 37 hul i gat namba long rota. Narapela nem: slot, cup.Ritim olgeta →, sikis pasin bilong bungim seksenwilSeksenWanpela hap bilong wil we ol hul i stap wan bihain long narapela, i narakain long wanpela grup long laiaut.Ritim olgeta → na tripela pasin bilong bungim kala, na wanpela samting bai pas. Marasin em: makim tes pastaim long yu lukim ol namba, mekim wanpela taim tasol, na strongim long nupela namba. Planti taim, painim nabaut long planti wil i mekim ansa olsem wil i “gat bias”.
Makim samting na bikpela bilong en
Sapos yu kaunim planti tumas, liklik bias nating i ken makim samting. Hul i kamap 1/36.5 i no 1/37 em i bagarap tru long wil. Em bai makim samting long sampela milion tanim, tasol em bai lusim mani yet long pemaniPeMani bet i win i givim yu, ol i tok olsem “X long 1”, antap long mani bilong bet i kam bek.Ritim olgeta → 35 long 1. Samting i bikpela long pleia em bikpela bilong efek: wanpela hul i kamap 1/36 o moa, na i go antap hamas? Chi-square i tokaut long wil; hamas taim hul i kamap tasol i tokaut long bet.
Strong bilong tes
Narapela rong em long no lukim bias i stap tru. Long 1,000 tanim, hul i kamap 1/30 (bikpela tru bias) yu painim long klostu hap bilong taim tasol long mak 5%. Hamas samting yu kaunim i stretim dispela, i no save bilong yu. Pes bilong hamas samting yu kaunim i givim ol namba.
Mak bilong wok tru
Bilong toktok long bias i gat as: tes yu makim pastaim, p < 0.01 i no 0.05, mekim gen long narapela samting yu kaunim i no hangamap na i wankain bikpela, na bihain long yu mekim gen, ol hul i kamap planti i mas kamap 1/34 o moa. Long histori bilong pilai, ol i kamap long dispela mak sampela taim tasol. Ol lista ol i putim ples klia i no soim wanpela taim long nupela wil ol i lukautim gut.
Ol askim
Pasin i kam long ol yia 1920. I no gat wanpela samting i narakain long en. Taim yu lukim planti wil, 0.01 em i mak i gat as moa.
Ating em i no givim ol namba long wankain sans. Em i ken kam long dila, long rong long raitim, o long rong long putim ol namba. Mekim gen.
Nogat. Em i tokim yu olsem distribiusen i no stret. Skelim ol seksen na bikpela bilong efek i tokim yu long we.
Amamas wantaim Matematik
Traim ol dispela yu yet pastaim. Bekim bilong wanwan i hait; opim taim yu redi.
Long wanpela wil i gat dabel sirowilSiroWanpela grinpela hul we i no gat bet wan-long-wan, dosen o kolam i karamapim; em i as bilong edj bilong kasino. Narapela nem: wanpela siro, 0.Ritim olgeta → ol i tokaut long en, dosenbetDosen1–12, 13–24 o 25–36, pe em i 2:1.Ritim olgeta → namba wan i kamap 742 taim long 3,000 tanim. Dispela em hamas standet diviesenmatematikStandet diviesenSkwea rut bilong varians; hamas longwe resal i save stap long ekspektet velyu.Ritim olgeta → daunbilo long avarej, na hamas taim stretpela wil bai mekim olsem?
Soim bekim
Bekim Klostu 8.1 standet diviesen daunbilo. Stretpela wil bai mekim klostu wanpela taim long 3 × 10¹⁵ traim, em i no save kamap. Bekim ol i prinim wantaim askim i tok 11.75; mipela i kisim 8.07.
Dosen namba wan i holim 12 long 38 hultulHulWanpela long ol 37 hul i gat namba long rota. Narapela nem: slot, cup.Ritim olgeta →. Long 3,000 tanim em i gat avarej 3,000 × 12/38 = 947.4 win, wantaim senis bilong √(3,000 × 12/38 × 26/38) = 25.5.
742 em 205.4 daunbilo long avarej: 205.4/25.5 = 8.07 senis.
Stretpela wil i pundaun tripela senis daunbilo klostu wanpela taim long 740 traim; etpela senis daunbilo, klostu wanpela taim long 3 × 10¹⁵ (bel kev, wanpela sait). Sapos yu tingim olsem man i ritim i lukim nogut tru long tripela dosen, dispela i no senisim wanpela bikpela samting. Risal olsem i tok wil, o kaunim, i rong. Long wil i gat wanpela siro wankain kaunim bai 9.0 senis daunbilo (avarej 973.0, senis 25.6).
Liklik lap
Wanpela long tupela ten stretpela wil i “makim samting”. Em i mining bilong dispela namba.
Ol As bilong Save
- Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…”
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Wizard of Odds. “Ask the Wizard”, ol askim long rulet.