Lukim Sesen: Wanpela Ran Paroli
Ten dola long blak, yu dabelim bihain long olgeta win, na yu kisim mani bihain long tripela win long wanpela ran. Martingale i tanim i go baksait, wan wan tanim.
Wanpela sesen bilong Paroli ol i simulatim, long 80 tanim. Tetin lus long namba wan tanim, twentifoa ran i bagarap, na tripela ran bilong tripela win i pinis, na wan wan i givim $70. Win tru −$160 bihain long em i bin antap $50. Sistem i save lus planti taim na i win sampela taim tasol, long wankain pasin matematik i tok bai kamap.
Wokabaut long sistem
Win i muv wanpela step i go het. Lus, o win namba tri, i go bek long stat.
Ol bet na ol risal i stap long yunit bilong bet bilong stat.
Plen
Putim bet $10 long blakbetBlakBet wan-long-wan long 18 namba blak. Tok Frans: noir.Ritim olgeta →. Bihain long win, larim $20 i stap long tebol. Bihain long namba tu win, larim $40 i stap. Bihain long namba tri win, kisim $80 i kam daun na stat gen long $10. Lus long wanem hap i mekim yu stat gen long $10. Long wan wan traim, yu putim $10 bilong yu yet long hevi, na yu winim $70 sapos blak i kamap tripela taim long wanpela ran. Dispela i kamap long (18/37)³ = 11.5% bilong ol taim. Yumi ting bai kamap klostu wanpela ran i pinis long nainpela traim.
Ol tanim 1–25
R B B R R B R B B R B B R R B R 0 B B B B R B B R. Twelpela traim: fopela i lus long namba wan tanim (−$10 wan wan, wanpela i lus long sirowilSiroWanpela grinpela hul we i no gat bet wan-long-wan, dosen o kolam i karamapim; em i as bilong edj bilong kasino. Narapela nem: wanpela siro, 0.Ritim olgeta →), tripela i lus long namba tu tanim (−$10 wan wan, long wanem $20 em mani bilong kasino wantaim mani bilong yumi), fopela i lus long namba tri tanim (−$10 wan wan, long wankain pasin), na wanpela tripela win i pinis long ol tanim 18–20 (+$70). Win tru −$40. Ran i pinis i pilim olsem em i soim stret. Ilevenpela traim i bagarap i pilim olsem nating, na em nau tingting bilong dispela sistem.
Ol tanim 26–55
Tupela tripela win moa, long ol tanim 28–30 na 37–39. Wan wan i hap bilong ran bilong fopela blak, na yumi kisim mani bihain long tripela: namba foa blak i winim nupela $10, na retbetRetBet wan-long-wan long 18 namba ret. Tok Frans: rouge.Ritim olgeta → bihain i kisim $20. Fiftin traim, win tru long dispela hap +$10; olgeta inap nau −$30; antap tru +$50 long tanim 39. Tripela tripela win long 27 traim em wankain olsem 3.1 yumi bin ting. Long antap tru, sesen i antap $50 na yu pilim olsem em i gutpela rot.
- p10 −$780
- p25 −$510
- namba long namel −$210
- p75 +$90
- p90 +$370
Ol tanim 56–80
Tetin traim i lus long wanpela ran. Nainpela long ol i lus long namba tu o namba tri tanim, taim ran i pinis wanpela o tupela blak i no inap. Win tru −$130 long dispela hap; long pinis −$160. Dispela ran bilong traim i bagarap i gat sansmatematikSansSans bilong wanpela resal, long 0 i go 1 o 0% i go 100%. Wanpela namba: 1/37 = 2.70%.Ritim olgeta → klostu 20%. Olsem: em bai kamap long pleia bilong ParolistratejiParoliPositive progresen: dabel bihain long win, go bek long stat bihain long lus o bihain long tripela win wan bihain long narapela. Narapela nem: Martingale i go baksait.Ritim olgeta → klostu long olgeta namba faiv sesen bilong dispela longpela.
Kaunim mani
Olgeta mani yu betim em $1,460 long 80 tanim, na pleia i bet $10 wankain oltaim i betim $800: ol ran i mekim olgeta mani yu betimmaniOlgeta mani yu betimOlgeta mani yu betim long wanpela sesen o long wanpela taim, wantaim mani yu win na yu betim gen. Narapela nem: handle, action.Ritim olgeta → i go antap. Avarej lusmatematikAvarej lusEkspektet velyu taims olgeta mani yu betim; avarej mani yu lusim long wanpela sesen o long wanpela taim.Ritim olgeta → long $1,460 em $39; lus tru −$160 i stap liklik long wanpela standet diviesenmatematikStandet diviesenSkwea rut bilong varians; hamas longwe resal i save stap long ekspektet velyu.Ritim olgeta → daunbilo, em i no narakain. Pleia i bet wankain oltaim long sait bilong yumi i gat wankain avarej long wan wan dola, na wanem i kamap long em i go antap na daun klostu hap tasol.
Wanem samting sesen i soim
Paroli em MartingalestratejiMartingaleProgresen i mekim bet i dabel bihain long olgeta lus. Lukim hap Strateji long wanem samting em i mekim na i no mekim.Ritim olgeta → i tanim het i go daun: planti taim em i lusim wanpela yunitmaniYunitMani bilong bet bilong stat we wanpela sistem o wanpela pleia i wok long en. Ol i stori long ol progresen long yunit, olsem na ol i ken wok long wanem tebol.Ritim olgeta →, na sampela taim em i winim sevenpela yunit. Martingale i winim wanpela yunit planti taim na i lusim sikistitri sampela taim. Hevi i liklik moa long wanem bikpela namba em i win, i no lus, na mani bilong bet i no save go antap long $40, na $10 tasol em bilong yu yet. Avarej lus long wan wan dola i no senis. Em i gutpela moa sistem long pleia i laikim variansmatematikVariansMak bilong hamas ol resal i kalap nabaut long ekspektet velyu. I bikpela long bet long wanpela namba, i liklik long bet wan-long-wan.Ritim olgeta → i no gat klif, tasol em i baim yet 2.70% bilong olgeta mani yu betim.
Ol askim
Fopela win long wanpela ran em 5.6% na i givim $150. Mak em liklik switpela samting tasol; edj i wankain long olgeta mak.
Nogat. Bihain long wanpela win, $20 long tebol em bilong yu. Paroli i pilim olsem i no dia, long wanem lus bilong ran i no luk olsem lus bilong mani bilong yu yet. Tasol em i lus bilong mani bilong yu.
Wankain avarej, mani bilong bet i antap tru i liklik moa, nogat klif bilong mak bilong tebol. Em i gutpela moa long olgeta rot, tasol long dispela wanpela samting i bikpela tru, em i no senis.
Liklik lap
Lus liklik planti taim, win bikpela sampela taim. Em i baksait bilong Martingale, na wankain prais.
Ol As bilong Save
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.