Bias bilong Wil bilong Rulet
Wil bilong rulet i gat bias i laikim sampela hul long wanem samting i bagarap: liklik banis i lus, rota i no stret, ol hul i bagarap. Bias bilong wil bilong rulet i stap tru na sampela man i bin kisim win long en. Hevi em olsem stretpela wil tru i save kamapim “hat namba” oltaim, olsem na askim i no olsem wanpela namba i hat o nogat, tasol olsem olgeta pasin i no stret moa long sans inap kamapim.
1. Kisim eksampel long stretpela wil
Ol tanim i kam long wil long simulesen i nogat bias liklik. Senisim hamas samting yu kaunim na lukim hul i hat tru.
2. Wanem i kamap na wanem ol i ting
Wanwan ba em i wanpela hul long lain bilong wil. Lain i bruk em namba ol i ting, n/37. Hap i gat kala em ±2 standet diviesen: long stretpela wil klostu wanpela hul long twenti bai go ausait long en long sans tasol.
3. Chi-square tes
Tes i bungim hamas longwe olgeta hul i stap long namba ol i ting, taim em yet na skelim. Long stretpela wil, namba i bung i bihainim chi-square distribution wantaim 36 degri bilong fridom; p-velyu i daunbilo long 0.05 ol i save kolim olsem i makim samting.
n = 370 · E = 10.00 · χ² = 32.80 · p = 0.622
4. Hamas tanim yu bai nidim
Hamas tanim yu nidim long painimaut wanpela hul i kamap planti moa long 1/37, long mak 5% long wanpela sait wantaim strong 80%. Hul i kamap 1 taim long 35, i no 1 long 37, bai givim strongpela edj long pleia, na yu nidim planti ten tausen tanim yu raitim long soim em i tru.
Metodoloji
Liklik lap
Stretpela wil i save kamapim hat namba long olgeta nait. Long soim bias tru, yu nidim planti ten tausen tanim.
Ol As bilong Save
- Pearson, K. (1900). On the criterion that a given system of deviations… Philosophical Magazine, 50(302).
- Thorp, E. O. (1969). Optimal gambling systems for favorable games. Review of the International Statistical Institute, 37(3).
- Ethier, S. N. (2010). The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling. Springer. Ch. 13, Roulette.