Lukim Sesen: Wanpela Apinun D’Alembert
Wanpela yunit i go antap bihain long lus, wanpela yunit i go daun bihain long win, ret long olgeta tanim inap wan handet tanim. Sistem i isi moa, na wanem prais yu baim long isi.
Wanpela sesen bilong 100 tanim ol i simulatim long D’Alembert, wantaim $5 long wanpela yunit. Mani bilong bet i go bek long $5 faivpela taim, em i go antap isi isi long $80 long wanpela nogut hap, na em i pinis long $55 taim sesen i daun $40. Sistem i luk olsem i stap long stret namel, tasol em i no olsem.
Wokabaut long sistem
Lus i muv wanpela step i go antap. Win i muv wanpela step i go bek.
Ol bet na ol risal i stap long yunit bilong bet bilong stat.
Plen
Stat long wanpela yunitmaniYunitMani bilong bet bilong stat we wanpela sistem o wanpela pleia i wok long en. Ol i stori long ol progresen long yunit, olsem na ol i ken wok long wanem tebol.Ritim olgeta →, $5, long retbetRetBet wan-long-wan long 18 namba ret. Tok Frans: rouge.Ritim olgeta →. Bihain long lus, putim wanpela yunit moa; bihain long win, rausim wanpela, tasol i no go daunbilo long wanpela. Tingting em olsem: ol win na ol lus bai stap wankain, olsem na long olgeta wanpela lus na wanpela win yumi go antap wanpela yunit. D’Alembert i no bin tokaut long dispela tingting, tasol ol i save givim asua long em. Matematik i tok ret i win long 48.65% bilong ol tanim, olsem na ol lus i winim ol win klostu wanpela long fopela ten, na mani bilong bet i go antap isi isi long taim.
Ol tanim 1–30
Fotin ret, fiftin blakbetBlakBet wan-long-wan long 18 namba blak. Tok Frans: noir.Ritim olgeta →, wanpela sirowilSiroWanpela grinpela hul we i no gat bet wan-long-wan, dosen o kolam i karamapim; em i as bilong edj bilong kasino. Narapela nem: wanpela siro, 0.Ritim olgeta →. Mani bilong bet i go antap long $20 long wanpela ran bilong tripela lus, i kam bek long $5 long tanim 18, na i go antap long $25 long pinis bilong dispela hap. Win tru +$20. Olgeta lus-win i givim wanpela yunit olsem ol i tok; ol lus moa i kaikaim ol. Yu pilim olsem wanpela isi pam i save wok planti taim.
Ol tanim 31–65
Nogut hap. Tetin ret na twentitu i no ret, wantaim wanpela ran bilong sevenpela lus. Long $5 long tanim 41, mani bilong bet i go antap wan wan yunit inap $80, na olgeta lus bilong $75 i bagarapim fiftin win bilong $5 i bin kamap paslain. Win tru long dispela hap em −$485; olgeta inap nau em −$465. Nogat bikpela samting i kamap long wanpela tanim; isi isi go antap em i mekim.
- p10 −$500
- p25 −$500
- namba long namel −$500
- p75 −$500
- p90 +$885
Ol tanim 66–100
Twenti ret na fiftin i no ret, na mani bilong bet i go daun long $80 i go long $55 long ol step bilong $5. Olgeta win long bikpela mani bilong bet i kisim bek mani tru: win bilong $75 bihain long lus bilong $70 em i lus-win i givim +$5, tasol em i bikpela lus-win. Win tru long dispela hap em +$425; long pinis em −$40.
Kaunim mani
Avarej mani bilong bet em klostu $37, olsem na olgeta mani yu betim em klostu $3,670, na pleia i bet $5 wankain oltaim i betim $500. Avarej lusmatematikAvarej lusEkspektet velyu taims olgeta mani yu betim; avarej mani yu lusim long wanpela sesen o long wanpela taim.Ritim olgeta → long $3,670 em $99; lus tru em −$40, daunbilo long wanpela standet diviesenmatematikStandet diviesenSkwea rut bilong varians; hamas longwe resal i save stap long ekspektet velyu.Ritim olgeta →. Mani bilong bet i go antap isi isi, em olgeta wok bilong sistem: moa mani i go long tebol, wankain 2.70% i lus long olgeta dola, na ol samting i ken kamap i go bikpela moa.
Wanem samting sesen i soim
D’Alembert em giaman tingting bilong gembla ol i raitim olsem lo bilong putim mani. Em i ting ol win na ol lus bai kam wankain kwik inap long mani bilong bet i ken go daun gen. Ol i kam wankain long longpela taim long wanem planti tanim i mekim liklik, i no long wanem wil i stretim. Na mani bilong bet i no gat as long go bek long wanpela yunit. Em i isi sistem i no gat klif, na dispela isi em i as na ol pleia i bilip long en.
I Kam Klostu long Longpela Taim: Lo bilong Planti Namba long Rulet
Ol askim
I no planti taim. Mani bilong bet i go antap wanpela yunit long wan wan lus, i no dabel, olsem na em i nidim wanpela longpela tru nogut ran bilong kamap long mak bilong tebol.
Yes, na mak i senisim em i kamap bet wankain oltaimstratejiBet wankain oltaimBetim wankain mani long olgeta tanim. Olgeta progresen ol i skelim wantaim dispela.Ritim olgeta → long mak bihain long nogut ran. Olgeta mak i orait; nogat wanpela i senisim edj.
Long 1754 em i tok tel bai kamap moa bihain long ran bilong het. Ol gembla i wanbel long em i kolim sistem long nem bilong em. Em bai sem long dispela.
Liklik lap
Sistem i isi moa. Em i go isi isi, i no pundaun long klif.
Ol As bilong Save
- d’Alembert, J. “Croix ou pile.”
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.