Olsem Wanem long Painimaut Bias bilong Wil bilong Rulet
Raitim, kaunim, testim, na raitim moa: em i rot bilong painimaut bias bilong wil bilong rulet.
Bungim wanpela tausen tanim o moa long wanpela wil, kaunim hamas taim wan wan hul i kamap, mekim chi-square teslaboratoriChi-square tesTes bilong statistik i skelim hamas taim bal i pundaun long olgeta hul wantaim n/37 yu ting bai kamap. Ol i yusim bilong save sapos wil i gat bias o nogat.Ritim olgeta →, na sapos wanpela ansa tasol i makim samting, em i as bilong bungim narapela samting yu kaunim i no hangamap long namba wan.
1. Raitim
Planti taim ol i putim ples klia o soim lista bilong ol tanim long ol laiv tebol, na yu ken kopim. Raitim wanem wil em i stap: ol tebol i save senisim ol het bilong wiltulHet bilong wilNarapela nem bilong rota: hap i save tanim na i karim ol namba.Ritim olgeta → namel long ol boltulBolHap bilong wil i no save tanim, long ausait: arere long diwai o long narapela samting i holim rot bilong bal na hap i slip, na rota i tanim insait long en.Ritim olgeta →, na bias i bilong wil, i no bilong tebol o dila. Raitim de na taim tu. Wil i gat bias tude, ol i ken senisim ol liklik banis bilong en tumora. Wanpela tausen tanim em i liklik tru namba bilong tes i ken tokaut sampela samting; long ten tausen em i stat long givim helpim.
2. Kaunim na testim
Kaunim hamas taim wan wan hultulHulWanpela long ol 37 hul i gat namba long rota. Narapela nem: slot, cup.Ritim olgeta → i kamap. Wan wan i mas kamap n/37 taim long avarej. Kaunim chi-square namba, Σ (wanem yu lukim − wanem yu wetim)² / wanem yu wetim, long olgeta 37 hul, na skelim wantaim chi-square distribiusen long 36 degri bilong fridomlaboratoriDegri bilong fridomNamba bilong ol velyu i no hangamap long narapela insait long wanpela statistik. Long chi-square tes long 37 hul em i 36, long wanem ol kaunim i mas bung i kamap olgeta namba.Ritim olgeta →. Wheel Bias Analyzer long dispela sait i mekim long brausa. Lukim ol seksenwilSeksenWanpela hap bilong wil we ol hul i stap wan bihain long narapela, i narakain long wanpela grup long laiaut.Ritim olgeta → tu: bagarap long bodi bilong wil planti taim i paitim ol hul i stap klostu wantaim, na seksen tes i no gat planti sans long givim giaman ansa olsem 37 tes long wan wan hul.
3. Mekim gen
Brukim ol namba long tupela hap, o bungim nupela samting yu kaunim, wankain bikpela, long dispela wil yet. Bias tru i kamap long tupela tupela. Laki nating i no kamap gen. Long stretpela wil, chi-square i makim samting long 5% bai kamap wanpela taim long tupela ten. Pleia i lukim planti wil bai painim kain namba olsem oltaim. Bihain long yu mekim gen tasol, em i gutpela long kaunim sapos ol hat hul i pe inap long winim 2.70%.
4. Mesarim bikpela bilong en
Sapos statistik i makim samting tru, em i tok wil i no stret ating. Bilong kisim win, wanpela hul i mas kamap 1/36 o moa, long wanem bet long wanpela nambabetWanpela nambaWanpela namba tasol, pe em i 35:1.Ritim olgeta → i pe 35 long 1. Hul i kamap 40 taim long 1,000 em i 1/25. Sapos em i tru, em bai givim bikpela win tumas; tasol long stretpela wil em i 2.5-sigma samting tu. Long namba tu 1,000 tanim, yu ken wetim 40 ± 6 gen sapos bias i tru, na 27 ± 5 sapos em i nois.
Bihain wanem: painimaut bias bilong wil bilong rulet long ol kasino nau
Long bipo: putim bet long hat seksen, winim i go inap kasino i luksave, na bihain ol i rausim yu o wil i lus. Famili García-Pelayo i mekim olsem klostu long Madrid long stat bilong ol yia 1990. Taim kasino i pasim ol, ol kot bilong Spein i rausim dispela tambu. Nau ol kasino i senisim ol rotatulRotaHap bilong wil i save tanim na i karim ol hul.Ritim olgeta → namel long ol bol na mesarim ol hul long taim ol i makim. Bias i bikpela inap long lukim long wanpela tausen tanim bai i no stap bihain long wanpela saikel bilong stretim wil. Pasin bilong wok i stret, tasol painimaut bias bilong wil bilong rulet long ol kasino nau i kam bihain tumas: long tru, rot i pas pinis.
Ol Pleia bilong Rulet i Gat NemGonzalo García-Pelayo: Sistem bilong Rulet
Hul i kamap planti moa i save kamap planti oltaim
Sapos yu makim hul i kamap planti moa na testim em wanpela tasol, em i trap, long wanem stretpela wil i gat wanpela hul i kamap planti moa oltaim. Bihain long 3,700 tanim, wan wan hul i mas kamap 100 taim long avarej. Tasol hul i kamap planti moa planti taim i soim klostu 122, na long wanpela samting yu kaunim long tupela ten em i soim 131 o moa. Hul i kamap liklik moa planti taim i soim klostu 79. Olsem na hul i kamap 125 taim long 3,700 tanim i no wanpela painim: skelim em wantaim hul i kamap planti moa long stretpela wil, i no wantaim 100.
Ol rong i save kamap
Bungim ol tanim long ol narapela narapela wil o het bilong wil. Testim bihain long yu lukim ol namba pinis na makim pasin bilong bungim i luk nogut moa. Ting olsem hat nambatingting i no truHat nambaNamba i bin kamap planti moa long yu ting long taim i no longpela i go pinis. Long stretpela wil, em i no tokaut long wanpela samting.Ritim olgeta → long 200 tanim em i wanpela mak. Lusim tingting olsem tes i ting ol tanim i no hangamap long narapela; olsem na pasin bilong han bilong dila bai mekim chi-square i go antap tu, maski i no gat hul i gat bias long bodi bilong wil.
Ol askim
1,000 bilong mekim tes tasol; sampela tausen bilong painim bias i gat helpim; planti ten tausen bilong strongim.
Sapos em i soim wanem wil na planti tanim inap tasol. Planti bod i soim 20 i go 500, na em i no inap.
Olsem wil i no givim ol namba long wankain sans ating. I no olsem wanpela hul i pe inap, na i no olsem dispela pasin bai i stap.
Amamas wantaim Matematik
Traim ol dispela yu yet pastaim. Bekim bilong wanwan i hait; opim taim yu redi.
Long wil i bagarap liklik, tripela retbetRetBet wan-long-wan long 18 namba ret. Tok Frans: rouge.Ritim olgeta → hultulHulWanpela long ol 37 hul i gat namba long rota. Narapela nem: slot, cup.Ritim olgeta → i no daun tumas, na baltulBalLiklik bal dila i sutim long rot i go long narapela sait long rota. Ol nupela bal i ivorine o Teflon, 18–21 mm.Ritim olgeta → i laik stop long ol i ran i go long ol blakbetBlakBet wan-long-wan long 18 namba blak. Tok Frans: noir.Ritim olgeta → hul klostu long ol, olsem na ret i kamap 15 taim long 37 na blak 21. Nau bet long ret na long blak i kostim o i givim hamas?
Soim bekim
Bekim Ret i kostim 18.9%; blak i givim 13.5%.
Ret i win 15 taim long 37 na i lus 22: (15 − 22)/37 = −18.9%. Blak i win 21 taim na i lus 16: (21 − 16)/37 = +13.5%.
Bias i katim tupela sait. Wil i givim edj long pleia em i mesarim, i kisim sevenpela taim moa long nomol pe long pleia i betim rong kala. Hunacek (2025) i yusim wankain eksampel.
Tripela hul long 37 em i bikpela bagarap tru. Bias tru planti taim em i liklik hap bilong dispela, na yu nidim planti tausen tanim long save long em na gutpela luk, olsem dispela pes i soim.
Liklik lap
Raitim, kaunim, testim, mekim gen. Mekim gen em i hap i hat.
Ol As bilong Save
- Pearson, K. “On the criterion that a given system of deviations from the probable…”
- Barnhart, R. T. Beating the Wheel.
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Wizard of Odds. “Hot Numbers in Roulette: Myths and Facts.”