Lukim Sesen: Wanpela Apinun Long $100 long Ret
Wan handet dola, ol sip bilong faiv dola, ret long olgeta tanim, na wanpela lo bilong stop. Wan wan tanim.

Wanpela nait ol i simulatim long laiv tebol: inap 60 tanim bilong $5 long ret, long mani $100, wantaim mak bilong stop long lus long $50 na mak bilong stop long win long $50. Mak bilong stop long lus i pinisim long tanim 36. Sesen i soim olsem wanem varians i luk long taim tru, na bilong wanem lo bilong stop em i wanpela tasol tingting i bikpela samting.
Plen
I gat beswan strateji bilong rulet wantaim $100? Nogat wanpela i mekim avarej lus i go daun. Dispela mani em mani yumi ken lusim; samting yumi makim em mani bilong bet na ol lo bilong stop. Mani bilong bet em $5, 5% bilong mani bilong pilai, na em i givim yumi klostu twenti bet i lus long han. Mak bilong stop long lusstratejiMak bilong stop long lusNamba lus yu makim pastaim, na taim yu kamap long en yu pinisim sesen.Ritim olgeta → long −$50 na mak bilong stop long winstratejiMak bilong stop long winMak bilong win yu makim pastaim, na taim yu kamap long en yu pinisim sesen.Ritim olgeta → long +$50, yumi makim nau. Avarej lusmatematikAvarej lusEkspektet velyu taims olgeta mani yu betim; avarej mani yu lusim long wanpela sesen o long wanpela taim.Ritim olgeta → long 60 tanim em 60 × $5 / 37 = $8.11. Yumi ting bai yumi go wantaim klostu $92, na long gutpela sansmatematikSansSans bilong wanpela resal, long 0 i go 1 o 0% i go 100%. Wanpela namba: 1/37 = 2.70%.Ritim olgeta → yumi bai stap namel long $20 na $170.
Ol tanim 1–20
R B B R R 0 B R R B R B B B R R B R B R. Ten retbetRetBet wan-long-wan long 18 namba ret. Tok Frans: rouge.Ritim olgeta →, nain blakbetBlakBet wan-long-wan long 18 namba blak. Tok Frans: noir.Ritim olgeta →, wanpela sirowilSiroWanpela grinpela hul we i no gat bet wan-long-wan, dosen o kolam i karamapim; em i as bilong edj bilong kasino. Narapela nem: wanpela siro, 0.Ritim olgeta →: +$50 − $45 − $5 = $0. Mani i stap $100. Siro long tanim 6 i kisim wanpela sipmaniSipSamting i makim wanpela namba mani i no save senis, yu putim long laiaut bilong mekim bet. Narapela nem: check.Ritim olgeta →, na long 1/37 em i kam liklik kwik. Nogat samting i narakain hia. Bihain long twenti tanim yumi stap long stret ples.
Ol tanim 21–36
B B B B B R B B R B B R B B B B. Faivpela blak long stat, tetin olgeta: tripela ret, tetin blak, +$15 − $65 = −$50. Mani i stap $50. Dispela hap i mekim ol manmeri i senisim bet bilong ol, putim dabel, o senisim kala. Sans bilong 13 blak o moa insait long 16 tanim em i liklik long 1%; em i mas kamap long wanpela man long dispela nait. Yumi go daun $50 long stat, mak bilong stop long lus i kamap long tanim 36, na yumi sanap na go.

Ol tanim 37–60, taim yumi no stap
R B R B, na bihain R R B R 0 R B R R B R R B B R R B R B R. Fotin ret, nain blak, wanpela siro: sapos yumi stap, +$70 − $45 − $5 = +$20 na mani i stap $70 long tanim 60. Tetisikis tanim long laiv tebol em klostu 45 minit. Yumi go wantaim $50, daun $50, na avarej long 36 tanim em −$4.86. Tetin ret, twentitu blak, wanpela siro.
- p10 −$100
- p25 −$100
- namba long namel −$100
- p75 +$0
- p90 +$70
Wanem samting i kamap
Yumi peim klostu $5 long 45 minit bilong rulet, na $45 moa bilong nogut lak. Tetin ret long 36 tanim em i daunbilo tru long 17.5 ol i ting bai kamap, na nainpela ret i liklik long ol blak em i −$45 bipo long siro. VariansmatematikVariansMak bilong hamas ol resal i kalap nabaut long ekspektet velyu. I bikpela long bet long wanpela namba, i liklik long bet wan-long-wan.Ritim olgeta → i makim dispela nait; mani bilong bet na ol tanim i makim prais; mak bilong stop long lus i makim taim em i pinis. Sapos yumi stap, yumi bai kisim bek $20 long tanim 60, na dispela i no as bilong stap: kisim bek tu em i varians, na ran bilong blak i kam paslain em tu i varians.
Samting yumi no mekim
Senisim mani bilong bet bihain long lus (em i progresenstratejiProgresenWanem lo i senisim mani bilong bet long ol resal i go pinis. Negative progresen i mekim bet i go antap bihain long lus, positive progresen bihain long win.Ritim olgeta →, na em i mekim olgeta mani yu betimmaniOlgeta mani yu betimOlgeta mani yu betim long wanpela sesen o long wanpela taim, wantaim mani yu win na yu betim gen. Narapela nem: handle, action.Ritim olgeta → i go antap). Senisim kala bihain long ran bilong blak (ods i wankain stret). Stap moa long 60 tanim bikos yumi “klostu stret” (em i olsem yu toktok gen long mak bilong stop long lus). Putim bet long dosenbetDosen1–12, 13–24 o 25–36, pe em i 2:1.Ritim olgeta → i “no kamap yet” (wankain edj, narapela pasin). Olgeta wan wan bilong ol bai senisim pasin bilong nait, tasol nogat wanpela i senisim avarej lus bilong en.
Ol askim
Twenti sip long han, i no ten. Nait i stap longpela; prais long wan wan tanim i go daun long hap.
Avarej lus $4.05, i no $8.11. Yes, em i helpim.
Mak bilong nating. Tetin blak long sikstin tanim i save kamap klostu wanpela nait insait long 125.
Liklik lap

Mani bilong bet na ol tanim i makim prais. Wil i makim filing.
Ol As bilong Save
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.