Yu Ken Winim Rulet? Olsem Wanem long Win long Rulet
Olsem wanem long win long rulet? I no long wanpela pasin bilong bet. Long ol taim bipo, ating inap long wil i bagarap o dila yu inap save long pasin bilong em, na long bikpela hatwok tru tasol.
Ol sistem bilong bet i no inap winim rulet: ol ekspektet velyumatematikEkspektet velyuAvarej resal long wanpela bet long longpela taim. −1/37 bilong mani bilong bet long olgeta bet olpasin bilong Yurop.Ritim olgeta → i bung wantaim, na olgeta bet i nek. Ol win tasol ol i raitim i kam long usim fisiks, i no long ol pasin bilong namba.
Bilong wanem ol sistem i no wok
Olgeta bet i gat EV = −1/37 bilong mani bilong bet. Olgeta lain bilong bet, maski yu makim ol long wanem rot long ol risalt bipo, i gat EV = −1/37 bilong olgeta mani yu betim. Dispela em teorem bilong matematik long bungim ol rendom namba. Em i no samting ol i lukim tasol, na gutpela sistem bihain i no inap bagarapim. Joseph Doob na Paul Halmos i soim stret long ol yia 1930, na Edward Thorp, em i bin winim blackjack long kaunim ol kas, i raitim ol samting teorem i nidim: olgeta bet i nek, ol tanim i no hangamap long narapelamatematikOl tanim i no hangamap long narapelaOlgeta tanim i gat wankain sans, maski wanem samting i kamap bipo. Olgeta kaunim long dispela sait i sanap long dispela.Ritim olgeta →, mak antap bilong tebol na mak daunbilo bilong tebol. Buk bilong em bilong 1966 i givim isipela pruf.
Ol Mak bilong Tebol long RuletOl Tanim bilong Rulet i No Hangamap long Narapela
Wanem samting i bin wok
Tripela samting, olgeta i stap long wil tru. Bias: wil i gat ol hultulHulWanpela long ol 37 hul i gat namba long rota. Narapela nem: slot, cup.Ritim olgeta → i no gat wankain sans, ol i painim long raitim planti tausen tanim. Tok profet: kaunim taim bilong baltulBalLiklik bal dila i sutim long rot i go long narapela sait long rota. Ol nupela bal i ivorine o Teflon, 18–21 mm.Ritim olgeta → na rotatulRotaHap bilong wil i save tanim na i karim ol hul.Ritim olgeta → long skelim seksenwilSeksenWanpela hap bilong wil we ol hul i stap wan bihain long narapela, i narakain long wanpela grup long laiaut.Ritim olgeta → bal bai i pundaun long en. Ol i mekim long ol kompyuta i hait, stat long ol yia 1970. Pasin bilong han bilong dila: tingting olsem dila i save lusim bal long wankain pasin tru inap long yu save long hap em bai i pundaun. Ol i no soim stret dispela. Tripela i nidim wil tru, longpela taim bilong lukluk, na kasino i no lukim yet.
Joseph Jagger i baim ol man long raitim ol risalt bilong ol wil long Monte Carlo. Em i painim ol namba i kamap planti tumas, na em i win bikpela tru inap kasino i senisim ples bilong ol wil na bihain i senisim ol wil olgeta.
Charles Wells i “bagarapim bank” wantaim gutpela luk tru na wanpela sistem em i no bin tokaut long en. Em i kam bek long dispela kolpela taim na i lusim sampela hap bilong en gen.
Edward Thorp na Claude Shannon i wokim namba wan kompyuta yu inap hangamapim long bodi long kaunim taim bilong bal bilong rulet. Masin i wok sampela taim tasol; ol i lusim wok.
Ol Eudaemons bilong Santa Cruz i usim ol kompyuta i hait long ol kasino bilong Nevada. Edj tru, ol masin i no strong, ol i no kamap maniman.
Gonzalo García-Pelayo na famili bilong em i raitim klostu 5,000 tanim long wanwan wil klostu long Madrid. Ol i painim ol wil i gat bias, ol i win, kasino i tambuim ol, na kot i rausim dispela tambu.
Tripela pleia i winim £1.3 milion long Ritz long London long tok profet long hap bal bai i pundaun long en. Ol i tok ol i usim lesa, tasol ol i no soim olsem em i stap tru; ol i holim yet ol win.
Small na Tse i putim pepa bilong fisiks i soim olsem yu inap kisim edj bilong sampela pesen long kaunim taim insait long laboratori.
Pasin bilong Han bilong Dila long RuletHamas Samting Yu Kaunim
Bilong wanem em i no wok nau
Ol kasino i senisim ol het bilong wiltulHet bilong wilNarapela nem bilong rota: hap i save tanim na i karim ol namba.Ritim olgeta → namel long ol boltulBolHap bilong wil i no save tanim, long ausait: arere long diwai o long narapela samting i holim rot bilong bal na hap i slip, na rota i tanim insait long en.Ritim olgeta →, ol i mekim ol bol i stret, ol i mesarim ol hul, na ol i senisim ol liklik banistulLiklik banisAin i banisim tupela hul long wil.Ritim olgeta → long taim ol i makim. Dispela i pinisim bias. Ol laiv studio i pasim taim bilong putim bet bipo bal i go isi, na ol i makim stret taim stim i kam bihain. Dispela i pinisim kaunim taim. Planti hap i mekim ol masin bilong tok profet i kamap rong long lo. Ol i tokim ol dila long senisim pasin bilong lusim bal. Long wil bilong nau ol i lukautim long kasino o studio i gat laisens, bekim i tru em nogat.
Olsem wanem long winim rulet, long tingting tasol: wanem samting em i nidim
Tingim olsem wanpela hul i kamap 1 long 33, i no 1 long 37. Bet long wanpela nambabetWanpela nambaWanpela namba tasol, pe em i 35:1.Ritim olgeta → long en i gat EV = 35/33 − 32/33 = +3/33 ≈ +9%. Long save olsem hul i gat bias tru na i no gutpela luk tasol, yu nidim klostu 10,000 tanim yu raitim long dispela wil yet. Long usim, wil i mas stap wankain taim yu wok long betim. Ol pes bilong Laboratori i makim statistik; ol pes bilong histori i stori long wanem samting i painim ol manmeri i bin mekim.
Bekim i tru
Long yu husat i gat sistem: em i no inap wok, na yu inap sekim dispela long ol simulata long dispela sait long wanpela apinun. Long yu husat i gat buk na isi tingting: bias i ken stap long tingting, tasol long wok tru ol i rausim. Long olgeta manmeri: rulet em i samting yu baim. Peim pe yu orait long en, long spit yu yet i makim, long wil i gat wanpela sirowilSiroWanpela grinpela hul we i no gat bet wan-long-wan, dosen o kolam i karamapim; em i as bilong edj bilong kasino. Narapela nem: wanpela siro, 0.Ritim olgeta → na la partageloLa partageLo bilong Frans: taim siro i kamap, hap bilong mani bilong bet wan-long-wan i kam bek. Em i katim edj bilong kasino long ol dispela bet long hap, i go daun long 1.35%.Ritim olgeta → sapos yu inap painim.
Ol askim
Nogat. Ol nambawan man ol i tok i “win” long sistem, olsem Charles Wells, i win long gutpela luk na i lusim sampela hap bilong en gen.
Long tingting, yes. Long kasino o studio bilong nau, ol bai painim na stretim bipo yu gat inap save long usim.
Long planti hap, nogat. Na yu no inap usim long ol laiv tebol i pasim taim bilong bet bipo bal i go isi.
Liklik lap
Fisiks, i no ol pasin bilong namba. Na nau em i no wok moa.
Ol As bilong Save
- RouletteDoc. Lukluk long olgeta strateji bilong rulet.
- Roulette77. Lukluk long olgeta strateji bilong rulet.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”
- Thorp, E. O. Elementary Probability.
- Doob, J. L. “Note on probability.”
- Halmos, P. R. “Invariants of certain stochastic transformations: the mathematical theory of gambling systems.”
- Bass, T. A. The Eudaemonic Pie.
- Small, M. & Tse, C. K. “Predicting the outcome of roulette.”
- Barnhart, R. T. Beating the Wheel.
- Chellel, K. “The Gambler Who Beat Roulette.”